Scottish vote and uncertainty

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Two voters in the "No" camp celebrate their win in the Scottish referendumImage source, Getty Images
Image caption,
More than two million people in Scotland voted against independence

Markets have reacted positively to the news that the UK will not be split after the Scottish referendum results.

In early trading in Asia, the pound rose against all 16 major currencies, including recording its biggest two-day rise in a year against the dollar, up 1.4% to around $1.65.

Recall at the end of August before the uncertainty over the referendum started to spread, sterling was at just under $1.66. In addition, the pound rose to a notable two-year high against the euro.

Stock markets are also up in Asia, with Japan's Nikkei index rising by nearly 2% at one point and the Hong Kong and Indian markets also posting gains.

In terms of futures, the FTSE 100 could open about 0.7% higher, while US stocks could also see a higher open despite new records set by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones at the close yesterday.

There are of course other factors moving markets, especially stocks, including the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and Alibaba's record US IPO.

But removing a major source of uncertainty in the UK plays a role as well, and is most noticeable in currency markets.

At one point, the volatility of trading the pound was as high as it had been during the 2008 global financial crisis. But, as the referendum result became clear, the value of sterling rose.

In some respects, the future of the pound was one of the main sources of uncertainty.

After all, the debate over whether Scotland would use the pound unofficially or introduce its own currency should it become independent was one of the unknowns to be worked out in the next 18 months, among other hotly debated options such as a currency union.

From the experience of Latin American countries with 'dollarisation,' there are downsides to not having one's own currency. This includes the inability to generate domestic savings in the country's currencies which can negatively impact much-needed investment.

Of course, issuing one's own currency as a small nation raises its own issues, not least in terms of joining the EU when the noises from Brussels suggested that it would involve adopting the euro eventually.

There are other uncertainties now for Scotland after this vote.

But, for markets at least, the big uncertainty that could have lingered for a year and half over the currency and the economy is lessened and sentiment is positive as a result.

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